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Why maths alone cannot predict the economy
Why maths alone cannot predict the economy

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To most people, the predictions of economists can be spoken of in the same breath as astrology or tarot readings. But, what is going on behind the scenes that leads to such flawed thinking? To a rarified, and powerful, section . . .

To most people, the predictions of economists can be spoken of in the same breath as astrology or tarot readings. But, what is going on behind the scenes that leads to such flawed thinking? To a rarified, and powerful, section of economists, mathematical market models have been used to explain all behavioural characteristics and find higher-level truths that capture the essential elements of human life. However, Matthew Watson argues, this treats abstract mathematical proof as empirical fact. Instead, we need to embrace a variety of methods in the social sciences and dethrone the abstract mathematical modellers if we are to find a better approach to the economy. In his General Theory of 1936, John Maynard Keynes reflected on the power of the “ideas of economists” and famously concluded that the “world is ruled by little else”….

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