[Revised entry by Vincenzo Crupi on August 4, 2025.
Changes to: Main text, Bibliography]
Human cognition and behavior heavily relies on the notion that evidence (data, premises) can affect the credibility of hypotheses (theories, conclusions). This general idea seems to underlie sound and effective inferential practices in all sorts of domains, from everyday reasoning up to the frontiers of science. Yet it is also clear that, even with extensive and truthful evidence available, drawing a mistaken conclusion is more than a mere possibility. For painfully tangible examples, one only has to consider missed medical diagnoses…

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