I have reached that time in life when my child is choosing which subjects to study for exams. As most parents acknowledge, our influence is limited and must be exercised through intricate ‘nudging’ that would make an economist proud. But in which direction should we nudge? Computer science, engineering and robotics are winning the PR war. Who wouldn’t want to work in a flashy office with bean bags and a messianic boss? Who needs history and English when Chat GPT can (approximately) tell you the causes of World War 1?

The number of students enrolling in History and English undergraduate degrees in the UK has declined dramatically in recent years. According to the British Academy, English Studies undergraduate students fell by 29% between 2012 and 2021¹. The story is similar for history, where the number of undergraduates has fallen by 17% between 2014/15 and 2019/20². This broad decline in the uptake of humanities subjects is not restricted to the UK. Last year the New Yorker ran an article stating that the number of History and English majors in the US has fallen by half between 2012 and the start of the pandemic³.

Back in the 1990s…, it was not English professors wringing their hands worrying about the future of their department, it was physicists. 

Is it worth betting on an unpopular subject? Yes. Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was not English professors wringing their hands worrying about the future of their department, it was physicists. Between 1994 and 2004, 17 UK university physics departments admitting more than ten students per year closed. The number of full time UK domiciled students opting to study physics fell by 29% over the same period. Physics uptake reached a low in 2006 before recovering⁴. It seems strange now, with the focus on science and technology, that the study of physics was ever in trouble. Could the same happen to history courses?

The great replacement

It is notoriously difficult to predict what skills will be needed in the future, but just like in the 1990’s we are in the middle of a profound technological shift. Yuval Noah Harari discusses the replacement of humans with algorithms, which will write stories, compose music, and do most of our jobs better than we ever did. He raises the possibility of an unemployable class, who add nothing to society. The figures he gives are startling, suggesting that there is a 98% chance sports referees will be replaced, 97% chance cashiers will, 94% waiters, 91% tour guides, 89% bakers. On the upside, he suggests virtual world builders will be in demand. Surely the best hope of escaping this fate is studying engineering or computer science? Someone will have to build and maintain the AI systems after all, and it may as well be you.

Just because we can automate something doesn’t mean that we won’t pay over the odds for an analogue version. 

There are two objections. Firstly, Philip K Dick was on to something with …

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